Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.786562 11.489634 13.351234 15.530637 18.005249 20.720716 23.918701
2025-02-02 7.291295 9.640580 12.466045 16.083013 20.555550 25.867980 32.614927
2025-02-09 5.718894 8.379282 11.849159 16.630525 22.961066 30.960013 41.720728
2025-02-16 4.454877 7.167491 10.972255 16.563843 24.412125 34.854968 49.582800
2025-02-23 3.451005 6.065661 9.989704 16.104669 25.145945 37.732963 56.221938
2025-03-02 2.663010 5.099913 9.001485 15.424341 25.385791 39.832623 61.837091
2025-03-09 2.181599 4.518071 8.482833 15.333477 26.408224 43.041041 69.163035
2025-03-16 1.771130 3.964575 7.904903 15.038215 27.032283 45.644824 75.716750
2025-03-23 1.598212 3.814403 7.984679 15.821729 29.415181 51.056245 86.798028
2025-03-30 1.371778 3.506500 7.725483 15.969002 30.732648 54.857727 95.597246
2025-04-06 1.170070 3.203944 7.423778 15.988540 31.808478 58.311469 104.018500
2025-04-13 0.995178 2.919635 7.109205 15.934038 32.727019 61.537445 112.225387
2025-04-20 0.944534 2.927144 7.409505 17.126832 36.045798 69.097009 128.130706
2025-04-27 0.863122 2.841249 7.501424 17.922497 38.712839 75.737310 142.928196
2025-05-04 0.781376 2.734816 7.531127 18.592044 41.194890 82.208546 157.796881
2025-05-11 0.666037 2.504092 7.237418 18.542503 42.277638 86.257796 168.716199
2025-05-18 0.545558 2.221076 6.767311 18.044982 42.417328 88.592697 176.745820
2025-05-25 0.435011 1.930624 6.221399 17.298004 41.966047 89.783134 182.773642
2025-06-01 0.369300 1.766725 5.971844 17.198737 42.836877 93.485078 193.491361
2025-06-08 0.306148 1.588235 5.647226 16.873475 43.187387 96.196158 202.508813
2025-06-15 0.288425 1.578173 5.798193 17.737325 46.190390 104.220887 221.752956
2025-06-22 0.252741 1.482182 5.678917 17.899647 47.640720 109.246894 235.562763
2025-06-29 0.218354 1.377763 5.513883 17.921187 48.769455 113.683264 248.442097